Fixture demo

France vs Spain

Compare a captured TxLINE result market with your own probabilities, build a simulated route, then replay the real final result.

Fixture 18237038 - Jul 14, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

TxLINE snapshotJul 14, 2026, 6:42 PM UTCCaptured market reference for this offline fixture.

Stage 1

Compare belief

Enter a clean 100% view and the app will surface the strongest positive disagreement.

Ready

TxLINE market

Three-way result

France37.3%

Draw31.8%

Spain30.9%

Your belief

Total 100.0%

France%Draw%Spain%

Disagreement

Calculated

OutcomeMarketYour beliefDifference

FranceMarket37.3%Your belief25.0%Difference-12.3 pts

DrawMarket31.8%Your belief25.0%Difference-6.8 pts

SpainMarket30.9%Your belief50.0%Difference+19.1 pts

Clearest available expression

Spain match result

Your belief is +19.1 pts above the TxLINE market probability, making this the strongest positive disagreement.

Stage 2

Set strategy

Use the standard paper policy or adjust the visible pricing inputs before building a route.

Ready to build

Paper decision

Spain match result

Simulation only. The route uses captured TxLINE probabilities, historical closing prices, and simulated capacity; no wager is submitted.

Your probability50.0%

TxLINE probability30.9%

Fair odds2.00

Minimum odds2.20

Target stake$5,000

Strategy presetRequired edge (%)Strategy bankroll

Balanced default: 10% required edge with Half Kelly sizing.

Advanced execution inputs

Kelly fractionUse Kelly sizingInclude paper prediction-market quotePaper decimal oddsPaper available size

Kelly sizing is an educational reference from your own belief, not bankroll advice. Manually entered paper quote data is not a live market connection and cannot submit orders.

Secondary calculations

Fair odds2.00

Calculated minimum odds2.20

Full Kelly8.33%

Applied Half4.17%

Suggested stake$5,000

Sizing modeKelly

Explore live Market Radar

Radar imports read-only SX Bet, Kalshi, and Polymarket observations. Those markets stay semantically separate from this captured TxLINE fixture unless an explicit mapping says otherwise.

Open Market Radar

Stage 3

Build paper route

Paper route using historical prices and simulated capacity.

Not built

Historical market snapshot

France vs Spain - FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal

Historical source

Full-time 1X2 - ClosingFixture 18237038Kickoff Jul 14, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

BookmakerFranceDrawSpainSelected Spain priceSimulated capacity

Matchbook2.72Historical closing price3.00Historical closing price3.25Historical closing priceSelected Spain price3.25Simulated capacity$500

Pinnacle2.60Historical closing price3.03Historical closing price3.23Historical closing priceSelected Spain price3.23Simulated capacity$2,000

William Hill2.38Historical closing price3.10Historical closing price3.00Historical closing priceSelected Spain price3.00Simulated capacity$2,500

Historical closing odds captured from OddsLab (odds data attributed there to The Odds API). Capacity and fills are simulated.

Source and provenance

Source URL: https://market.oddslab.gg/leagues/world-cup-2026/matches/world_cup_2026-france-vs-spain
Retrieved at: Jul 19, 2026, 3:03 PM UTC
Provenance: historical-third-party-reference

Paper route using historical prices and simulated capacity

Simulation only - no wager submitted

Matchbook3.25Simulated capacity $500Eligible

Pinnacle3.23Simulated capacity $2,000Eligible

William Hill3.00Simulated capacity $2,500Eligible

Synthetic stress quote2.10Simulated capacity $5,000Below minimum

Routed fills

Waiting for build

Use Build simulated route to allocate the default target stake.

Truth boundary

TxLINE supplies the captured market reference and final result. Historical bookmaker prices are sourced third-party closing references. Capacity, route fills, order transmission, custody, and settlement money are simulated for paper analysis only.

Stage 4

Replay result

Freeze the belief, pricing policy, and paper route, then play the committed France vs Spain result.

Build route first

FranceUnknownSpainUnknown

Speed

Build a simulated execution route before replay so the plan can be frozen.

Historical odds movement was not available from TxLINE for this completed fixture. The market probabilities stay fixed at the real initial snapshot.

Recent events

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No replay events have been played yet.