Match Horizon

Imported observations49

Relevant scope5 of 49

Matching observations5 World Cup & soccer

Displayed5 of 5

Source status2 live · 1 fallback

Snapshot timeOct 2, 2026, 1:37 AM

SX Betlive

Imported 25 public active outcomes from SX Bet REST.

25 imported | 579ms

KalshiFixture fallback

Live Kalshi fetch failed; showing committed fixture fallback. Kalshi returned no public World Cup binary markets.

2 imported | 127ms

Polymarketlive

Imported 22 public Gamma/CLOB outcomes from Polymarket.

22 imported | 2405ms

Market scopeVenueCategoryRoute stateSearchMin ask depthFilters by available ask size.

Strategy Lab

Yes

Polymarket

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes

StateMapped

Best ask41.0%

Spread0.1%

Ask depth2583

Age1799h

Score23.5

Mapping polymarket-world-cup-2026-argentina-outright-comparable is normal-completion-comparable. Comparable under normal tournament completion: YES resolves according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Cancellation or non-completion can resolve to Other.

Real venue quotes

Real read-only quotes · paper execution only

Comparable under normal tournament completion

Exceptional cancellation, abandonment, or deadline handling may differ by venue.

Current live quotes

No current live route

No current live comparable quotes are available for routing.

Captured comparison

Captured witness available

Polymarketfifa-world-cup-2026-winner:argentina

Ask41.0%

Odds2.439

Captured notional$2583

Age1799h

capturedpolymarket-world-cup-2026-argentina-outright-comparable

Kalshififa-world-cup-2026-winner:argentina

Ask41.8%

Odds2.392

Captured notional$184556

Age1799h

capturedkalshi-world-cup-2026-argentina-outright-comparable

SX Betfifa-world-cup-2026-winner:argentina

Ask43.0%

Odds2.326

Captured notional$151

Age1799h

capturedsx-world-cup-2026-argentina-outright-comparable

Captured real quotes are shown for witness replay only; they are not current live capacity.

Your probabilityPaper target stakeMinimum decimal odds

Normal-completion paper route assumes the tournament completes normally; it is not settlement-equivalent liquidity.

Recipe

Compares a settlement-exact mapping against the captured TxLINE reference and freshness gates.

User belief for this mapping (%)

context only

Reference-

Edge-

Paper stake-

Passed

accepted because spread 0.1% is within the gate.
accepted because depth 2583.0 meets the requirement.

Blocked by

rejected because this recipe requires a settlement-exact mapping before paper routing.
rejected because the txline reference is unavailable.
rejected because quote age 107918m exceeds 10m.
rejected because cross-venue divergence cannot be calculated.

Context limitations

context-only because mapping polymarket-world-cup-2026-argentina-outright-comparable is normal-completion-comparable, not settlement-exact.

Why surfaced

Liquidity: 1.00Spread: 1.00Freshness: 0.00Extremeness: 0.18Cross Venue Divergence: 0.00Belief Disagreement: 0.00Resolution Risk Penalty: 0.15

What would change my mind?

A threshold needs a user, TxLINE, or consensus reference probability.

Current ask41.0%

Minimum odds-

Strategy Duel

Stale Market and Top-of-book Liquidity Gate both context only.

Stale Market: context-onlyTop-of-book Liquidity Gate: context-only

Paper-route eligibility

Unavailable: requires settlement-exact audited canonical mapping; requires a fresh observation within the selected recipe age gate; requires the selected TypeScript strategy evaluation to accept.

Read-only market radar

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

Argentina vs The Field - Outrights - World Cup

Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?